December 2025 CLAR Real Estate Board Data and thoughts for 2026 Market

Happy New Year! I wish you health, happiness, and success in all your 2026 endeavours.

The December market data has now been released. Below, I’ve highlighted a few key takeaways, and further down in this email you’ll find charts and more detailed breakdowns by location and property type. If you’d prefer a more tailored, “zoomed-in” view of your specific neighbourhood or property segment, feel free to call me anytime.

From what I’m seeing on the ground, activity is slowly picking up. I’m currently working with several buyer prospects, a strong number of lease inquiries, and I’m seeing increased interest in multi-unit commercial and residential properties. There have been a few recent offers on investment-style properties over the past couple of months, although many have not yet come together for various reasons.

Overall, consumer confidence appears to be improving, but buyers remain cautious on pricing. At the same time, listings are sitting on the market when sellers are not closely aligned with current market expectations. Pricing accuracy is proving critical.

I’m also speaking with several potential sellers who are trying to time the market. A common question is whether to list now—when there may be fewer competing listings and a chance to stand out—or wait for the spring market, which typically brings more buyers, but also significantly more seller competition. Some are weighing whether prices could soften further between now and spring, making an earlier listing more appealing.

Looking ahead, some market forecasters are projecting modest price declines in 2026—approximately 3.5% nationally and closer to 4.5% in Toronto, according to two major national brokerages. This year is also when many have predicted a potential “mortgage renewal shock,” as homeowners who secured historically low rates face renewal at higher levels.

That said, I’m not convinced this will result in a large flood of listings. Many homeowners who bought 4–5 years ago also sold at peak values and put substantial equity down when purchasing, unless they were first-time buyers. In addition, a surprisingly large number of Ontario homeowners are mortgage-free, particularly among long-term and older owners. For those with mortgages, I believe many will adjust to higher payments rather than sell—especially given that selling often means renting or significantly downsizing at today’s prices.

As a result, I expect many owners will look for alternative solutions to maintain their homes, such as refinancing, adding a second mortgage, bringing in a roommate, or adjusting other expenses, rather than being forced to sell.

There are also signs of improving conditions ahead. Compared to last spring, economic uncertainty has eased, pricing is more affordable, interest rates have come down from last year’s peak following multiple hikes, and increased inventory is creating more competition among sellers. Some economists are also pointing to potential stimulus later in 2026, including further rate reductions, possible government incentives, and improved employment and inflation data.

The foreign buyer ban is currently set to expire at the end of 2026, and any adjustments or removal could also stimulate investment activity. There has also been discussion around revisiting the mortgage stress test requirements, which could further impact affordability. Many of these factors point more toward 2027 as a potential inflection point.

It’s fair to say the past few years have been stagnant and, at times, confusing for buyers and sellers alike. Historically, real estate markets move in cycles of peaks and valleys, and many are trying to identify whether we are at—or near—the bottom. Some seasoned market observers suggest we may be close, making this a compelling time to buy, while others believe there may still be some room to the downside into 2027.

One statistic I’ve seen shows an average price decline of approximately 26% from the February 2022 peak. Considering how sharply values rose during the pandemic, this correction is not unexpected—and we are still above pre-pandemic pricing levels.

Below is a snapshot of the latest data, with more detail further down in the email.

As always, please don’t hesitate to reach out if you’d like to discuss buying, selling, leasing, or simply navigating the current market.

Warm regards,

Denise

Northumberland County recorded 70 home sales in December, a 14.6% decline compared to November’s 82. The average selling price edged up slightly to $671,750, remaining stable relative to November’s $671,436, highlighting consistent pricing conditions. New listings totalled 87, while homes spent an average of 54 days on the market, remaining largely in line with last year’s 57.

Durham Region recorded 455 home sales in December, down from 622 in November, reflecting typical year-end seasonality. The average selling price increased modestly by 0.4% month-over-month to $844,473, demonstrating continued price stability. Compared to December 2024’s average of $930,207, pricing reflects a more balanced market environment. New listings totalled at 529, an increase of 8.9% from last year’s 486, with homes spending an average of 38 days on the market.

(charts and more detailed data for all areas in the Central Lakes Association of Realtors board below)

Central Lakes Association of REALTORS® Report December Housing Market Statistics

January 8, 2026 – The Central Lakes Association of REALTORS® has released its December 2025 Housing Market Statistics, showing a seasonal slowdown in sales activity as the year came to a close. While activity eased across most Regions, pricing remained relatively stable, supported by healthy inventory levels that continue to provide buyers with a range of options entering into the new year.

“As we move through the winter market, we’re seeing the expected seasonal slowdown in activity. However, we are also seeing how consumer confidence is continuing to shape the housing market with cost-of-living pressures alongside ongoing interest rate uncertainty,” said CLAR President Christine Riley. “While many households are taking a cautious approach, healthy inventory levels remain across our Regions, continuing to provide buyers with expanded choice.”

Hastings County recorded 91 home sales in December, a 20.9% decrease from November, while remaining 42.2% higher than the 64 sales recorded in December 2024. The average selling price was $466,716, adjusting from November’s $529,139 as year-end conditions took hold. New listings increased 16% year-over-year to 123, while inventory levels remained supportive of market balance. Homes spent an average of 52 days on the market, consistent with longer selling timelines typical at this time of year.

Kawartha Lakes saw 52 home sales in December, easing from 85 in November as the winter market conditions set in. The average selling price reflected seasonal adjustment, declining 7.4% month-over-month to $604,056 from $652,436. New listings reached 75, up from 36.4% from last year’s 55, helping maintain choice for buyers. Overall, pricing remains within a healthy long-term range, supported by steady demand.

Peterborough area reported 87 home sales in December, down from 136 in November as activity slowed seasonally. The average selling price declined 3.3% month-over-month to $617,177, adjusting from November’s $638,555. New listings reached 78, helping maintain balanced conditions, with average days on market, compared to last year’s 49, holding steady at 48.

Prince Edward County recorded 22 home sales in December, marking a 37.5% increase from November’s 16 and demonstrating continued interest in the Region heading into year-end. The average selling price was $615,276, reflecting seasonal adjustment from November’s $719,595. New listings totalled 23, while active listings remained elevated, offering buyers a strong range of options as the market transitions into 2026.

Reflecting on the past year, CLAR Chief Executive Officer Wendy Giroux shared her thoughts on the Association’s progress and the opportunities ahead. “This past year has been a learning process for our Association, marked by meaningful growth, strong collaboration, and continued advocacy on behalf of our Members, buyers, and sellers across our vast Region. As we enter 2026, we remain committed to fostering excellence in real estate and driving positive change in the industry. Wishing everyone a successful year ahead!”